{ Print This Page } PAGE 061
 
VASSARmagazine.Com "The New Urban Editorial on Life"
  2008 Major League Baseball Preview
 

by Mehul Patel

For me, the start of a new baseball season is one of the highlights of the year. Not only does it mark the arrival of a lifelong passion of mine, it's also a reminder that summer is right around the corner and being from Chicago, that's always a good thing. This is a time when every fan has a new found optimism for their favorite team, no matter how well it has fared in recent seasons. Being a Cubs fan, people often wonder how I can be optimistic about anything on a team that has now gone 100 years without a championship. Well, the typical Cubs fan is kind of like Charlie Brown. No matter how many times he tries to kick the football from Lucy, he always ends up landing on his back. Yet, he's persuaded to keep trying, until one day he can finally accomplish this feat. For Cubs fans, witnessing the team win that elusive championship is the equivalent to being able to kick that football, and they'll keep coming back every year no matter how badly the team broke their heart the year before.

So in the spirit of the baseball season, I present to you a quick and dirty preview of the 2008 Major League campaign, featuring bits on all 32 teams. Why should you read this preview instead of the thousands of others that are out there? Honestly, at this moment I can't think of one reason. However it's my hope that at the end of the season, I can refer the Vassar faithful to this piece to point out its accurate predictions, including those predictions which may not have been prognosticated by even the most reputable of sports journalists.

Without further ado, here is how I see the upcoming season shaping up. Teams are listed in reverse order of finish (last to first) in their respective divisions.

AL West

4. Texas Rangers -- This is an organization that always leaves me scratching my head as they take the same approach every year -- spend the majority of the payroll on offense, send out over the hill and just plain bad pitchers to the mound (let's overpay them as well for good measure) and then pray that you can consistently outslug your opponent and win games 15-9. All good in theory except for the fact this plan hasn't worked in two decades or so. So for 2008, it should come as no surprise that the Rangers will probably lead this division in runs scored but have its worst ERA. Mainstays Hank Blalock and Michael Young are still around, but the Rangers will also look to newcomers Milton Bradley and Josh Hamilton for some power. Ok, so maybe they won't lead the division in runs. On the mound, Kevin Millwood is a solid pitcher, but he's the ace on this staff, with Vincente Padilla and Brandon McCarthy as the 2 and 3 men in the rotation. Yikes.

3. Oakland A's -- For years Oakland has had the magic formula for winning baseball games on a tight budget. Who can forget general manager Billy Beane as the inspiration to the book Money Ball? Unfortunately, those days seem to be behind them. For 2008, the A's will be rebuilding, something they've always done in years past with their revolving door policy, but this time they'll be doing it with considerably less talent. The departures of pitcher Dan Haren and outfielder Nick Swisher leave the Athletics without two of their top stars from 2007. Rich Harden is a stud when healthy but he's been plagued by injuries in recent seasons and his health for 2008 remains questionable. Assuming Harden can make 25 starts, the starting rotation for the A's is still pretty formidable with Joe Blanton and Chad Gaudin. The A's have always overachieved with pitching and good defense and this year may be no exception, which is why I am picking them ahead of Texas.

2. Seattle Mariners -- The Mariners surprised a lot of people last season with an 88-win campaign. There may be more reason for optimism this season. The addition of stud pitcher Eric Bedard combined with a maturing Felix Hernandez give the Mariners a solid 1-2 punch in the rotation. J.J. Putz has emerged has one of the game's best closers. Offensively, the Mariners will have problems scoring runs. Outside of mainstay Ichiro, you have a lot of dead weight (not to mention bloated salary) in Richie Sexson, Adrian Beltre and Brad Wilkerson. Raul Ibanez had a career year last year, but there is no way he repeats those numbers in 2008. Pitching will keep the Mariners in the hunt, and if they can find a way to manufacture runs, they have a shot at the AL West. Otherwise the last team standing in this division will be...

1. Los Angles Angels -- The Angels easily have the best balance in this division. The rotation features two of last year's best pitchers in Kelvim Escobar and John Lackey. The backend of this rotation has Jered Weaver, Ervin Santana and new addition Jon Garland, not one bum in the bunch. Veteran Vlad Guerrero anchors an offense that can do it all whether it's hitting for power or playing small ball. Adding free agent Torii Hunter to the mix makes them that much better on both sides of the ball. The bullpen has been terrific for years now with Francisco Rodriguez as the closer and Scott Shields as the setup man. Put all this together and the Angels are a definite World Series contender.

 AL Central

5. Minnesota Twins -- It's hard to put the Twins here given the fact they've won this division 4 out of the last 6 years, but clearly the roster on this squad is a far cry from the one that accomplished that feat. The Twins still feature Joe Mauer and former MVP Justin Morneau on offense, but after that there isn't any reason to believe the Twins can keep up with the high powered offenses in this division. Minnesota will look to Francisco Liriano to fill the shoes of the departed Johan Santana, but his return from Tommy John surgery makes him a huge question mark. The Twins are still solid at closer with Joe Nathan and manager Ron Gardenhire always seems to preach solid defense and fundamentals. In the past, that would have been enough to make Minnesota more than formidable, but this season it's not going to cut it, especially with the strength at the top of this division.

4. Chicago White Sox -- Unlike most Cubs fans, I am not a White Sox hater by any means. On the contrary, I was thrilled for their fans when they shocked the world by winning the 2005 World Series. So I place the White Sox here, not out of spite, but because…well… they're just not that good. GM Kenny Williams is trying to find the same lightning in a bottle as he did in 2005 by blending veteran players with a youth movement. Problem is the veterans are starting to become quite old and the youngsters just aren't very talented. The backend of the starting rotation features 60-something year old Jose Contreras, John Danks and Gavin Floyd. I can see the Sox fans drinking heavily already. The bullpen outside of Bobby Jenks was absolutely atrocious for the White Sox last season, and they're counting on Kansas City castoffs Octavio Dotel and Mike MacDougal to have bounce back years. I like Mark Buehrle as the ace of the staff however and Javier Vasquez definitely has the potential to be a major surprise. Adding scrappy center fielder Nick Swisher and a solid defensive shortstop in Orlando Cabrera are also commendable moves. Many people picked the Sox to be 4th in 2005 as well and look how well that turned out.

3. Kansas City Royals -- Here's predicting the Royals will be one of the pleasant surprises of the 2008 season. A team long plagued by a small market payroll, the talent they've acquired over the years will start to gel. Kansas City features a good young rotation that may have three players reach double digits in victories (Gil Meche, Brian Bannister and Zack Greinke) if the Royals offense can provide run support. This is a big if however as offensively, the cupboard is really bare. On paper this team should finish dead last, but I have a strong hunch on this one.

2. Detroit Tigers -- Detroit was quite busy this past off-season, adding Miguel Cabrera and Edgar Renteria to an already very potent lineup (possibly the best in the league) and Dontrelle Willis to an average pitching staff. Keep in mind that Willis has given up more hits than innings pitched in the last two seasons and starters Jeremy Bonderman and Nate Robertson had ERAs hovering around 5.00. Veteran Kenny Rogers will eat up innings, but he may not give you much more than that, plus his health is a question mark as well. Ace Justin Verlander is the savior here. The Tiger bullpen has the potential to be a disaster with an aging Todd Jones and an inconsistent Fernando Rodney. The health of stud setup man Joel Zumaya is also a concern for Tiger fans. Fortunately for Detroit, with the lumber they bring to the plate (Magglio Ordonez, Gary Sheffield, Carlos Guillen, Ivan Rodriguez and the aforementioned Cabrera and Renteria) the Tigers will be up 9-4 going into the later innings quite often, making the bullpen's job real easy. The Tigers will contend for the division all year, and even if they don't win it, they have a real shot at the wild card.

1. Cleveland Indians -- While Cleveland lacks the firepower on offense the Tigers have, they have a better rotation in my mind with C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona, and sometimes a powerful 1-2 pitching combo is all it takes to win it all (take the 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks with Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson for example). This is not to say the Indians will have trouble scoring runs. Grady Sizemore has developed into one of the best five tool players in the game, and you can count on catcher Victor Martinez giving you a line of .300 25 115 every year. And I especially love the upside of 2B Asdrubal Cabrera, who showed great promise in the ALCS last year against the Boston Red Sox. Crucial to the success of the Indians' offense is Travis Hafner, who needs to bounce back from a down year in 2007. Closer is bit shaky in Cleveland with Joe Borowski, who posted 45 saves in '07, albeit with an ERA of 5.07, which is unheard of for a closer. Chances are likely this race will come down to the last week of the season, and at this point you might as well flip a coin to pick a winner.

AL East (The source of 90% of ESPN's baseball coverage)

5. Baltimore Orioles -- In years past, the Orioles have fielded decent teams capable of making the playoffs, but were unable to do so in a division that also features the Yankees and Red Sox. This year, it won't matter what division Baltimore is in as this team is capable of being one of the worst in the league and may lose 100 games. GM Andy McPhail is leading a rebuilding effort, trading away former stars Miguel Tejada and Erik Bedard for prospects and the rumor mill has current 2B Brian Roberts going to the Cubs. Owner Peter Angelos doesn't have a clue on how to run a baseball team and the fact that he's hired former Cubs President McPhail (or as I like to call him McFail for the 12 years of ineptitude while with the Cubs) to turn things around in Baltimore all but confirms this. Looking at the Orioles roster, there aren't many familiar names outside of Nick Markakis and mediocre veterans like Kevin Millar and Melvin Mora. Time will tell how good the prospects are but my guess is most of them will not pan out. Let's move on.

4. Tampa Bay Rays -- Normally finishing 4th in a division isn't a good thing, but when you're talking about Tampa Bay, it's not necessarily all that bad. It appears dropping the Devil from their name is a way to reinvent themselves and signify a change in a new direction, which is a good thing as their history as the Devil Rays was definitely forgettable. This is a franchise that has lost at least 90 games every year since its existence, 100 games three times, and has finished last in the AL East every year except one. But in 2008, I see Tampa's young talent having some serious success. No, they won't challenge for the division, but they will definitely give their AL East counterparts some headaches. B.J. Upton emerged as a five-tool talent last season, and fans can only expect more improvement from Upton this season. For the team to succeed at the plate, Carlos Pena will need to put up the kind of power numbers he did last season (.282, 46, 121), and Carl Crawford has to have a consistent year. The rotation is also promising with ace Scott Kazmir, along with James Shields and newly acquired Matt Garza. Kazmir's health is always an issue however. An aging bullpen is also a concern as both Al Reyes and Troy Percival approach 40. Look for 3B Evan Longoria to be the next young up and comer for the Rays.

3. Toronto Blue Jays -- Toronto has spent some serious cash on free agents the past few years in hopes of contending with the AL East's big boys, but injuries have derailed them. A.J. Burnett, Roy Halliday, B.J. Ryan, and Vernon Wells were just a few of the Jays to spend considerable time on the DL last season. In total, Toronto lost 950 man-games due to injury. Get these guys healthy and you may have something, eh? This past off-season, the Blue Jays have added pesky lead-off man David Eckstein and dependable third baseman Scott Rolen in hopes of contending for a playoff spot. In addition to staying healthy, Vernon Wells needs to rebound from a disappointing season for Toronto to have any chance, and Alex Rios has to continue his progression as a five-tool player.

 

2. New York Yankees -- Hiring Joe Girardi as former manager Joe Torre's replacement was the best move George Steinbrenner could have made (and he hasn't made too many good moves recently) after another disastrous campaign in 2007. Girardi will not tolerate lackadaisical efforts and guys not playing up to their potential. He also won't show the patience and loyalty Torre did towards aging veterans, which will make 2008 interesting in the Bronx as the Yankees have A LOT of old players. Consider the rotation features Mike Mussina (39) and Andy Pettitte (36). The lineup has Jorge Posada at 36, and four players that are 34 -- Derek Jeter, Hideki Matsui, Johnny Damon, and Bobby Abreu. Closer Mariano Rivera is now 38. It's easy to see why the Yankees decided to be quiet in the free agency market after 2007 and build from within the organization. Despite the fact some of these guys should be collecting social security, the Yankees offense is still very potent, and easily one of the best of the league considering you still have Jeter, A-Rod and Robinson Cano in that infield. They will score a lot of runs, but the Yankee downfall will most likely be their starting rotation. The hope is young prospects Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes live up to their potential, otherwise New York will have to win a lot of 10-8 games. My man-crush on Girardi is the only reason I'm still picking them second. He will find a way to get the most out of the players there.

 

1. Boston Red Sox -- My hate for the Red Sox is starting to equal that of my hate for the Yankees. Not only have they have broken their curse and won another championship for good measure, they are now the team that gets all the top free agents. They are the ones with the unlimited payroll. They are the ones with the annoying fans. That said, Boston will again contend for a championship in 2008. The Red Sox practically return everyone from last year's lineup, and if Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia continue to improve from their 2007 campaigns, this race will be over rather quickly. The starting rotation will be without Curt Schilling for a few months, and Josh Beckett's health is always a question mark but the bullpen led by closer Jonathan Papelbon is more than capable of picking up the workload until Schilling gets back. So yeah the Red Sox are really good, and I don't want to talk about them any more. Time to move on to the National League…

 

NL West

5. San Francisco Giants -- The Giants have lost their top fan attraction in Barry Bonds, and there really isn't much else on this roster that will keep the fans coming back to the park. This figures to be a woeful offense led by a lot of aging veterans -- Rich Aurilia, Ray Durham, Omar Vizquel  and Dave Roberts to name a few. For the Giants to even have a chance at finishing .500 in 2008, the starting rotation will have to step it up in a big way, and they have the talent to do so with guys like Matt Cain, Noah Lowry and 5'11, 170-pound flame thrower Tim Lincecum leading the starting rotation. But without run support, wins will be hard to come by for these guys.

4. San Diego Padres -- This is where this division starts to become the most difficult one to predict. San Diego won 89 games last year and missed the postseason after losing a heartbreaking one-game playoff to Colorado. In my opinion the Padres overachieved last year and I don't see them having the same type of success this year. They have one of worst (and oldest) outfields in the majors with Jim Edmonds, Brian Giles, and Scott Hairston. Edmonds and Giles a decade ago would have made a good tandem, but clearly their best days are behind them. Closer Trevor Hoffman had a terrific year in 2007, but his ERA was well over 4.00 for the second half of the season (not to mention he took the blown save and loss in that one-game playoff against Colorado), and at age 40, you have to start wondering if he can sustain his success. The saving grace for the Padres is their rotation, which features arguably the best 1-2 combination in the game today in Cy Young winner Jake Peavy and the towering Chris Young.  These two are capable of carrying the Padres on their backs for a while, but I don't see them sustaining it over 162 games. The ex-Cub factor might come into play as former Cubs phenom Mark Prior joins the Padres staff. He can't possibly resurrect his career in San Diego and cause me more suffering can he?

3. Los Angeles Dodgers -- Manager Joe Torre goes from one historic franchise to another, making his debut in Los Angeles. The Dodgers are an interesting story in that with the right lineup, they can contend for this division. It seems veterans Juan Pierre and Nomar Garciaparra are taking up spots management would like to see go to younger players. Look for the Dodgers to try to trade both and some point but for the time being, it looks like Torre will remain loyal to the veterans, possibly taking time away from up and comers Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp. Andruw Jones was added to the mix this past off-season and one has to think he can't be any worse than the .222, 26, 94 he put up in '07. The rotation is a bit a question mark. Can Brad Penny go 16-4 with a 3.03 ERA again and continue to be the ace? Or will Chad Billingsley take over that role? Derek Lowe is a good 4th starter who will eat up a lot of innings, but then Torre has to send Estaban Loaiza (5.79 ERA in '07) to the mound. Dodgers fans are hoping former all-star pitcher Jason Schmidt can come back from injury and contribute. Los Angeles has a solid bullpen with closer Takashi Saito and setup man Jonathan Broxton. They'll make some noise, but it won't be enough to win this division.

2. Arizona Diamondbacks -- The Diamondbacks are similar to the Padres in that they have their own 1-2 duo in the starting rotation with Brandon Webb and new acquisition Dan Haren (15 wins, 3.07 ERA in the AL last season). If Randy Johnson can contribute anything at all at age 75 (ok, he's actually 44), there isn't any reason why Arizona can't repeat as NL West Champs once again. The lineup will have trouble scoring runs, but this is a scrappy bunch that finds way to manufacture them, as exemplified in their sweep of my beloved Cubs in last season's NLDS. CF Chris Young has the ability to become an all-star if he can show some discipline at the plate and improve that woeful batting average (.237). I think many people overlooked Arizona (including yours truly) because they were a team that allowed more runs than they scored last season and yet they finished with 90 wins. Obviously if they repeat that trend, they probably won't win that many games and they certainly won't fly under the radar this time around, which is why they will fail to win the division. Expect them to be in the wild card hunt, but the offense will be their Achilles' heel.

1. Colorado Rockies -- Last season's Cinderella team returns practically everyone from the 2007 team with the exception of Kaz Matsui, who left for Houston. Colorado has always had a potent lineup, but they have slowly built a nice rotation (even for Coors Field standards) in ace Jeff Francis, Aaron Cook and youngsters Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales. The rotation still pales in comparison to the rest in this division, but that's where the starting lineup comes in. Matt Holiday (.340, 36, 137), Garret Atkins (.301, 25, 111), and NL rookie of the year Troy Tulowitski lead the charge, but for all their explosive firepower at the plate, the Rockies are one of the best defensive teams in the league. This especially comes into play at Coors Field, where you can ill afford to give teams extra chances to score runs. The Rockies have the best balance in this division, and will win it if the rotation can live up to their potential and prove last season was not a fluke.

 

NL East

5. Washington Nationals -- Fans of the Nationals will have a new stadium to look forward too in 2008 as Nationals Park is slated to be ready by opening day. Once the novelty of that wears off however, there isn't much else to be excited about in D.C. The starting rotation is awful outside of John Patterson, who remains a question mark as he comes back from injures that have sidelined him the past two seasons. After Patterson you have Shawn Hill, Jason Bergmann, Matt Chico and Tim Redding anchoring the staff. Pass the Maalox please. Offensively, the Nationals don't have much to offer either considering Dmitri Young will probably be the cleanup hitter. Washington's bullpen surprised many last season and it will probably keep them from losing 100 games this season.

4. Florida Marlins -- The Marlins have won two World Series in their 15 years of existence (while the Cubs haven't won one in 100 years) and the city of Miami doesn't give a damn about this team so I don't feel any sympathy at all no matter how many times they finish in the bottom of the standings or how many talented players they let go through their fire sales. Gone are Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, who were traded to Detroit for some Little Caesar's pizza I believe. Only a matter of time before new franchise player Hanley Ramirez is shown the door.

3. Atlanta Braves -- After 14 straight playoff appearances, the Braves have missed the postseason the last two seasons. They are trying to relive their glory days by bringing back pitcher Tom Glavine and former catcher Javy Lopez (who they ended up releasing). 
Someone needs to tell the Braves front office this isn't 1995. The Atlanta offense is pretty respectable with Mark Texiera, Chipper Jones, and Brian McCann as the 3-4-5 guys. Jeff Francoeur in the 6-hole is no slouch either (.293, 19, 105). They bid adieu to Andruw Jones and replaced him with Mark Kotsay, which to me is a major downgrade considering Jones, despite his decline in production at the plate, played one of the best center fields in all of baseball. The rotation is still led by ace John Smoltz who at age 40 is still at the top of his game, Tim Hudson who won 16 games last season with an ERA of 3.33, and the aforementioned Glavine, who is still serviceable at age 41. The Braves do have some questions in the bullpen with unproven closer Rafael Soriano. They are a nice little team that's capable of winning around 85 games, but that won't be enough to contend in this division.

2. Philadelphia Phillies -- NL East champions last season, the Phillies will once again be in the running for not only the division, but the pennant as well. One of the best offenses in the league last season in terms of runs scored per game (5.51), they went out with a whimper in the NLDS, getting swept by the Rockies in three games. That lapse aside, the offense should pick up right where they left off in 2008. Perennial home run champ Ryan Howard, Chase Utley (.332, 22, 103 with 104 runs scored) and 2007 NL MVP Jimmy Rollins lead the explosive group. We're talking about a trio that could possibly win the last three NL MVP awards. The bottom of the lineup isn't shabby either with Pat Burrell and the platoon of Jayson Werth and Geoff Jenkins in the outfield.  The Phillies will miss clubhouse leader and fan favorite Aaron Rowand out in center, and I'm scratching my head trying to figure out the Pedro Feliz acquisition, but with this offense that's nitpicking. The rotation is solid at the top with Cy Young candidate Cole Hamels and Brett Myers, who is returning to the rotation after a brief stint as closer. It becomes questionable after that with Kyle Kendrick, Adam Eaton and the ageless Jamie Moyer, but they'll be able to get by because of the bats.

1. New York Mets -- After a monumental collapse in 2007 which saw the Mutts blow a 7-game lead with three weeks to play and miss the playoffs entirely (karma for 1969 perhaps?), GM Omar Minaya decided to go out and acquire baseball's top pitcher in Johan Santana from the Minnesota Twins. The Mets were able to outbid the Yankees, Red Sox and Angels for Santana's services, and he'll probably be worth every penny. Look for Santana to completely dominate the weaker hitting National League, winning over 20 games, with an ERA near 2.00 and close to 250 strikeouts, and nab yet another Cy Young award. Pedro Martinez now becomes your number two starter with John Maine and Oliver Perez rounding out the rotation. Offensively, the Mets are led by MVP candidate David Wright and Jose Reyes, who is easily one of the most exciting players in the game today. Look for Reyes to top last season's 78 steals in 2008. The bullpen, despite its major role in last season's collapse, is still solid (although opinions vary on this), especially if Duaner Sanchez can come back from injury. As much as I hate to say it, the Mutts may be the best team in the National League.

 

NL Central (The Cubs are in this division, so of course I'm saving it for last)

6. St. Louis Cardinals -- How the mighty have fallen. Just two years ago, the Cardinals were celebrating an improbable World Series title. For 2008, they'll be hard pressed to stay out of NL Central cellar, as the front office looks to remove dead weight and start a rebuilding process. Gone are staples, David Eckstein, Jim Edmonds and Scott Rolen. In are Troy Glaus (a major defensive liability at 3B), Cubs reject Cezar Izturis and another ex-Cub in Matt Clement. Chris Carpenter is slated for a mid-season return, but his effectiveness will certainly be in question. The Cardinals are probably 2-3 years away from contending again, and as a Cubs fan, I will certainly take great joy in that. But at least they still have Albert Pujols to keep the fans in the seats.

5. Houston Astros -- Yet another perennial NL Central contender that is destined to fall on some hard times. Just check out the names that departed after the 2007 season -- Craig Biggio, Eric Bruntlett, Chris Burke, Adam Everett, Jason Jennings, Brad Lidge, Orlando Palmeiro, Chad Qualls, and Luke Scott. Not that all these guys were all-stars by any means, but by gutting a team like this, you lose a lot of chemistry heading into a new season. Miguel Tejada was acquired in the off season in hopes that he could resurrect his once MVP career, and in the weaker National League, that is certainly possible. The offense has some big bats in Lance Berman and Carlos Lee, along with some young talent in RF Hunter Pence and CF Michael Bourn, who can easily steal 50 bases in a full time role. But overall, this appears to be a mediocre offense at best. The rotation suffers from a huge dropoff after ace Roy Oswalt, with Wandy Rodriguez as the number 2 man. Houston is more than capable of finishing the season at .500, but for this preview's purposes, someone has to be 5th.

4. Pittsburgh Pirates -- The Pirates are another small market team I am predicting will find a way to finish out of the cellar. The Pirates will struggle on offense due to a serious lack of power outside of Jason Bay, but they have a starting staff that has potential in Tom Gorzelanny (14-10, 3.88 ERA), Ian Snell (9-12, 3.76 ERA) and Paul Maholm (10-15, 5.02 ERA). This is a trio that's young and already better than the counterparts Houston and St. Louis have to offer. Pittsburgh desperately needs Bay to return to his 2005-06 form for this offense to be taken seriously however. In any other division, the Pirates would finish last, but not here.

3. Cincinnati Reds -- Normally I would dismiss the Cincinnati Reds as every year it seems people have them as a sleeper team in the NL Central, only to have them falter after a month or two. But this year they have Dusty Baker! Now, I am not a Dusty Baker supporter at all. On the contrary, I blame him for not keeping the team's composure during the 2003 NLCS and for being outmanaged by the corpse known as Jack McKeon in that series. He followed that campaign by leading a total collapse during the last week of the season that cost the Cubs a playoff spot in 2004 -- for a team that was arguably the most talented in franchise history and picked by many to win the World Series. However the thing about Baker is he is very good at leading a team from point A to point B. He's proven this with the Giants and the Cubs, leading them from the division basement to the playoffs. His problem is getting his teams to point C, i.e. a championship. The Reds return the same cast of characters they have in past years with a few exceptions. They have shored up the bullpen by acquiring closer Francisco Cordero (44 saves) from the Brewers and Jeremy Affeldt from the Rockies. Aaron Harang still leads the rotation and he is a solid ace and workhorse, but there are serious questions after him. Phenom Homer Bailey is waiting in the wings and may emerge as the third starter at some point in the season. For Reds fans' sake, let's hope Dusty doesn't ruin their arms the way he did Mark Prior's and Kerry Wood's in Chicago. Ok, that was a bit unfair. The Reds are interesting in that they never really rebuild, nor do they add impact players and so they always finish in the middle of the pack. Here's hoping this year is no exception.

2. Milwaukee Brewers -- After years of baseball misery in cheese land, the Brew Crew emerged last season as a force in the NL Central, owning a seven game lead over eventual champion Chicago in July, only to see their lack of experience cost them the division. This year, they return the same nucleus from the 2007 team, and hope to learn from what happened last year.  The offense is led by prolific home run hitter Prince Fielder (.288, 50, 119), LF Ryan Braun (.324, 34, 97), and RF Corey Hart (.295, 24, 81). Scoring runs won't be a problem for the Brewers, but there are questions in the rotation. Ace Ben Sheets is an injury waiting to happen, and then manager Ned Yost will have to follow up Sheets with the likes of Jeff Suppan and Dave Bush. The Brewers also let go their closer from last season Francisco Cordero in favor of Eric Gagne, whom Milwaukee hopes will show his old Dodger form. If he doesn't then Derrick Turnbow will be waiting in the wings to take over the closing responsibilities. Milwaukee will be the Cubs' primary threat for the NL Central crown this season, but the Cubs are a little bit more formidable.

1. Chicago Cubs -- The Cubs should win this division by default for the second straight year. If Lou Pinella can ever figure out where to place Alfonso Soriano in the lineup (he is not a leadoff hitter in my opinion), the Cubs may have a breakout year and run away with the division. Chicago returns practically the same team as last season. Their major off-season acquisition was RF Kosuke Fukudome, a guy who has an all-around game, good plate discipline, and a high on-base percentage, something the Cubs have lacked forever. It would be nice to see 1B Derrek Lee put up the power numbers he did in 2005 when he hit 46 HRs. As a first baseman, the 22 he put up last year is unacceptable coming from that position. If Lee can't produce the power, the Cubs still have Aramis Ramirez and Soriano and can expect 35-40 HRs from each of them. If Orioles 2B Brian Roberts is added to the mix, the lineup will be that much better as the speed element would come into play and more runs would be manufactured via small ball. The rotation is one that features a lot of depth in Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, Rich Hill, Jon Lieber and Ryan Dempster. For now Sean Marshall is the sixth man in the rotation, but on any other roster he could easily be a fourth starter, that's how much depth the Cubs have in the rotation. The bullpen is excellent with setup man Carlos Marmol and new closer Kerry Wood. Cubs fans have long thought Wood would be a good fit as closer due to his history of injury and now they'll get to see it come to fruition.

Playoffs

I'm picking the Tigers and Phillies as the wildcard teams so the playoffs will look like this:

NL Division Series -- Mets over Rockies
Cubs over Phillies

AL Division Series -- Indians over Angels
Red Sox over Tigers

NL Championship Series -- Mets over Cubs

AL Championship Series -- Indians over Red Sox

And in the World Series I like the Indians over the Mets, with Cleveland breaking their 60-year championship drought and giving the city their first professional sports championship in quite some time. Unfortunately this means the metaphorical football will be elusive to Cubs fans for yet another year. As Charlie Brown would say, "Good grief".